When identity becomes strategy: elite narratives and the road to war in Ukraine

Abstract

This article examines Russia’s foreign policy towards Ukraine using an integrated framework that combines neoclassical realism with constructivist epistemology. Prevailing explanations grounded in structural realism or liberal theory often overlook the significance of identity, perception, and elite narratives in foreign policy decision- making. The analysis contends that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 cannot be adequately explained by systemic factors alone, such as NATO enlargement or the erosion of post-Cold War security structures. Instead, these external pressures were interpreted and intensified through intervening variables – including elite-driven identity narratives, strategic culture, existential nationalism, and securitised discourse. Building on neoclassical realism, the article highlights how structural constraints were mediated by domestic political dynamics and leadership beliefs. Constructivist insights further illuminate how national identity and historical memory shaped Russia’s threat perceptions and served to legitimise military action. The findings suggest that Russia’s behaviour reflects more than strategic calculation; it embodies a deeper ideational contest over status, sovereignty, and regional order. By synthesising realist and constructivist perspectives, the article offers a more comprehensive explanation of the Ukraine crisis and underscores the value of theoretical pluralism in analysing complex foreign policy conduct.