Analysing the Drivers of Cropland Footprint in Leading Agricultural Nations: Evidence From MMQR Approach

Abstract

Climate change represents the biggest current challenge for us and for future generations. Its impact on agriculture is undeniable, considering the food security goal. Thus, the cropland footprint has been distinguished as a comprehensive index for assessing the impact of environmental changes in agricultural areas determined by the increased living standards of people and consumption habits. This paper investigates the determinants of the cropland footprint in the top 10 agricultural countries from 1991 to 2021. Among the determinants considered are GDP per capita, urbanisation rate, employment in agriculture, arable land, fertiliser consumption and annual mean temperature. The second-generation panel data analysis technique MMQR was used in the study, after checking for Durbin-Hausman co-integration and the Pesaran CSD test. The results reveal that arable land significantly increases the cropland footprint in higher quantiles (e.g., coefficient = 0.0053 at the 0.90 quantile), while fertiliser consumption shows a significant negative effect across most quantiles (e.g., coefficient = -0.0543 at the 0.30 quantile). Additionally, GDP per capita positively influences the cropland footprint across all quantiles (e.g., coefficient = 0.2138 at the 0.50 quantile). The results from the MMQR analysis suggest that arable land has a significant and positive impact on the cropland footprint in medium and high quantiles. Additionally, fertiliser consumption and GDP per capita demonstrate significant negative and positive impacts, respectively, on the cropland footprint across almost all quantiles. Conversely, urbanisation, annual average temperature and agriculture employment do not significantly impact the cropland footprint. Based on the results, we can state that using fertilisers can help diminish the cropland footprint by increasing the fertility and productivity of the cultivated areas. At the same time, increased GDP per capita and enlarged arable land will increase the cropland footprint. In the context of robust economic growth, fertilisers are important factors to decrease the cropland footprint as a result of using large arable lands for crop purposes.