What is the long-run relationship between military expenditures, foreign trade and ecological footprint? Evidence from method of Maki cointegration test

Abstract

The US leads the global economy regarding foreign trade volume and military expenditures. Increases in military expenditures and foreign trade can substantially affect environmental issues. This study's preliminary research objective is to explore the interaction of foreign trade and military expenditures with ecological concerns in the long-term of the US economy using current time series techniques. Ecological footprint, military expenditures, exports, imports, urbanization, and agricultural area variables are used in the analysis with annual data for the US economy for the period 1970-2018. A relationship in long-term between the variables is revealed by the Maki (2012) cointegration test results, considering structural break. As indicated by the findings obtained from the coefficient estimation, an increase in military expenditures, exports, and agricultural area decreases the ecological footprint, while an increase in imports increases it. In addition, the results of the time-varying causality test show that there are periodic causality relationships between the variables. To sum up, there is a negative relationship between military expenditures, exports, and agricultural area, and ecological footprint, and a positive relationship between imports and ecological footprint. © The Author(s) 2024.