Predicting Democracy Support in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

Democracy support among Arab citizens has decreased noticeably in the past decade. The Arab Barometer data demonstrates more than an average of 15–30 points drop‐in democracy support depending on the country considered. The present research utilizes the seventh wave data set offered by the Arab Barometer conducted between October 2021 and July 2022. The data covers 12 countries including Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Egypt, Sudan, and Kuwait. The investigation examines contemporary predictors of democracy support in the Middle East and North Africa. Utilizing multinomial logistic regression modeling, the current analysis found that older, more educated, and economically optimistic individuals are more likely to support democracy. On the other hand, urban residents, as well as those pessimistic about government performance, are less likely to support democracy. Overall, Arab citizens no longer support democracy at the same rate similar to pre‐Arab Spring levels.