Enhanced Drought Vulnerability in the Kızılırmak Basin: Understanding the Influence of Climate Models

Abstract

This research examines how significant atmospheric fluctuations affect drought conditions, in the Kızılırmak Basin in Tu¨rkiye. We studied the impact of climate indices like NAO, Nin˜o, AMO, PDO, ONI, and SOI by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as an indicator of drought. The findings reveal an increase in both the frequency and severity of droughts after 2015. In the 2000s, short-term droughts lasted from 1 to 3 months. However, after 2020, longer-term droughts lasting between 6 and 24 months have become more severe. Correlation and lead-time analyses reveal ENSO indices, particularly Nin˜o 3.4 and ONI, as primary drivers of drought, with a positive impact. The SOI emerged as a significant predictor of future drought conditions. While PDO and AMO influence drought, their effects are less pronounced. Understanding these complex relationships is crucial for developing effective regional drought management strategies.